Europe's Roadmap to Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Vehicles by 2030
Key Ideas
  • European Commission's analysis projects 108,000 zero-emission buses and coaches on European roads by 2030, with a focus on battery electric vehicles.
  • In a major shift towards sustainability, the heavy-duty vehicle segment is expected to see 534,000 zero-emission vehicles by 2030, predominantly battery electric.
  • Policy framework emphasizes urgent transition to zero-emission technologies, with a 90% mandate for city buses by 2030, driving the need for supporting infrastructure.
  • Electrification trends favor short-haul operations over long-haul, with hydrogen fuel primarily reserved for coaches and long-distance trucking due to energy density and range challenges.
A new Market Readiness Analysis by the European Commission, Transport & Mobility Leuven, Ramboll, and the University of Antwerp forecasts a significant rise in zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles on European roads by 2030. The report projects a scenario where 108,000 zero-emission buses and coaches could be operating, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) taking the lead. This shift aims to address the urgency of transitioning to zero-emission technologies, especially in urban transport. With a focus on reducing emissions, the EU's policy framework mandates a 90% zero-emission rate for city buses by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The analysis envisions 534,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles by 2030, primarily powered by batteries. While hydrogen vehicles are expected to have a smaller share, challenges remain in terms of energy demand, infrastructure needs, and the availability of hydrogen models, especially in the coach segment. The study highlights the faster electrification pace of short-haul operations compared to long-haul applications, where hydrogen's role is more prominent due to its energy density. However, uncertainties persist regarding the energy split between technologies and the dominance of hydrogen drivetrains in the market. Despite these challenges, the projected market shares align with EU's CO2 standards for heavy-duty vehicles and reflect ambitious climate policy targets, even though hydrogen's contribution is anticipated to be relatively smaller than in some optimistic forecasts.
ADVANCEH2

Our vision is to be the world's leading online platform for advancing the use of hydrogen as a critical piece needed to deliver net-zero initiatives and the promise of a clean H2 energy future.

© 2025 AdvanceH2, LLC. All rights reserved.