India's Electric Future: Growth in Demand and Power Generation
Key Ideas
  • ICRA report projects a 6-6.5% CAGR in India's electricity demand over the next five years, driven by electric vehicles, data centres, and green hydrogen production.
  • India to add about 44 GW of generation capacity in FY26, with coal-based thermal power remaining a significant contributor alongside renewable energy sources.
  • Thermal power will hold a substantial position in meeting the increased power demands despite growth in renewable energy output, with a 9-10 GW thermal power capacity addition expected in FY26.
  • Average spot power tariffs in the Indian Energy Exchange moderated to Rs 4.4 per unit in FY25, with stable short-term electricity tariffs expected in FY2026 due to better coal supply and slower growth in thermal power generation.
India's electricity demand is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-6.5% over the next five years, driven by factors like the adoption of electric vehicles, expansion of data centres, and green hydrogen production. These segments are expected to contribute significantly to the increased demand. The country is projected to add 44 GW of generation capacity in FY26, with coal-based thermal power playing a major role alongside renewable energy sources. Despite the growth in renewables, thermal power is expected to remain a key player in meeting the escalating power demands. The report mentions a 9-10 GW thermal power capacity addition in FY26. Additionally, the average spot power tariffs are expected to stay stable in FY2026 at Rs 4.4 per unit due to improved coal supply and slower growth in thermal power generation. Although there have been improvements in reducing book losses for discoms, there still exists a gap between the cost of power supply and earnings from tariffs. The cash gap per unit for discoms at the all-India level is anticipated to stay high at 35 paise per unit in FY2026.
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