India's Electricity Demand Outlook for 2026-2030: Growth Drivers and Challenges Ahead
Key Ideas
  • India's electricity demand is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6-6.5% over the next five years, outpacing the previous decade, driven by EV adoption, green hydrogen, and data center expansion.
  • The trifecta of EV adoption, green hydrogen, and data centers is expected to contribute 20-25% of the incremental electricity demand from FY26 to FY30.
  • Despite renewable energy leading with 44 GW capacity addition in FY26, coal-based capacity is also set to increase by 9-10 GW to ensure grid reliability during clean energy transitions.
  • Financial strain persists for distribution companies in the power sector, with discom debt reaching ₹7.4 trillion by March 2024, highlighting the need for improved tariff structures and operational efficiency.
According to a recent report by ICRA, India's electricity demand is projected to witness a robust growth trend between 2026 and 2030, with a CAGR of 6-6.5%, fueled by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, green hydrogen initiatives, and the expansion of data center capacities. This growth is anticipated to be significant, contributing to around 20-25% of the incremental demand in the upcoming five-year period. The country's focus on renewable energy is evident through plans to add 44 GW of renewable capacity in FY26, with an additional 9-10 GW of coal-based capacity to ensure grid stability during the transition. However, challenges in the power distribution sector persist, as distribution companies are grappling with rising debt levels and limited tariff adjustments, leading to a negative outlook. ICRA highlights the importance of measures such as implementing smart metering programs and optimizing fuel and power purchase cost frameworks to enhance the financial health of discoms. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment towards India's electricity demand remains positive, with a strong emphasis on sustainable growth and clean energy transitions.
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