Roadmap for Low-Carbon Road Transport Transition in Fossil Fuel-Dependent Regions
Key Ideas
  • Transitioning to low-carbon energy in road transport requires a holistic approach considering various fuel technologies and policy pathways.
  • Financial incentives and carbon pricing alone are insufficient to drive significant zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption by 2050.
  • A 100% ZEV sales mandate by 2035 can significantly increase market shares of hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles by 2050.
  • The study's findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and inform infrastructure planning in the transportation sector.
The study focuses on transitioning road transport to low-carbon energy in a fossil fuel-dependent region, with Alberta in Canada as a case study. The research evaluates various fuel technologies, including hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles, across ten vehicle categories until 2050. It assesses nine scenarios with different policy pathways like financial incentives, ZEV mandates, and carbon pricing. The results show that current policies, such as carbon pricing and ZEV incentives alone, are inadequate to drive substantial ZEV adoption by 2050. Without a ZEV policy, hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles are projected to have market shares of 16% and 31% by 2050, respectively. However, with a 100% ZEV sales mandate by 2035, these shares could increase to 36% and 64% for hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles, respectively, by 2050. The study suggests that a ZEV sales mandate is the most effective policy to accelerate the transition towards zero-emission vehicles. The findings aim to guide policy development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the road transportation sector and provide insights for infrastructure planners and energy stakeholders. The assessment framework developed in the study can be globally applied to analyze and strategize the transition in the transport sector.
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