India's Rising Electricity Demand Driven by EVs and Green Hydrogen
Key Ideas
  • India's electricity demand is projected to grow at 6.0–6.5% CAGR over the next five years, fueled by electric vehicles, data centers, and green hydrogen projects.
  • Thermal plant load factor is expected to remain steady at 70% in FY2026 despite increased renewable generation and thermal capacity additions.
  • EV segment is poised for deeper market penetration, with green hydrogen capacity expected to scale gradually due to cost implications compared to grey hydrogen.
  • While spot power prices in DAM decreased in FY2025, distribution companies continue to face financial stress, with an elevated cash gap per unit expected in FY2026.
India's electricity demand is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.0–6.5% over the next five years, driven by increasing consumption from electric vehicles (EVs), data centers, and green hydrogen projects, according to ratings agency ICRA. Despite a projected lower growth rate in FY2026 compared to GDP growth, the demand is expected to see improvement from previous years. The thermal plant load factor is anticipated to stay at 70% in FY2026, supported by renewable energy generation and thermal capacity additions. The EV segment is expected to witness significant market penetration, particularly in three-wheelers, two-wheelers, e-buses, and passenger cars. Green hydrogen capacity is likely to grow gradually due to cost considerations relative to grey hydrogen. While spot power prices decreased in FY2025, distribution companies are under financial strain, with an increased cash gap projected for FY2026. ICRA maintains a negative outlook on the power distribution sector, highlighting financial weaknesses and limited reforms.
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