India's Electricity Demand Outlook for FY2026-FY2030: EVs, Green Hydrogen, Data Centers
Key Ideas
  • ICRA predicts 20-25% of incremental electricity demand in India over the next 5 years will be driven by EVs, green hydrogen, and data centers.
  • Electricity demand growth for FY2026 is expected at 5.0-5.5%, influenced by early monsoon onset and above-average rainfall expectations.
  • The thermal power segment is expected to add 9-10 GW capacity in FY2026, with a significant portion of demand being met by renewable energy sources.
  • Generation capacity addition in India is anticipated to hit a record 44 GW in FY2026, primarily led by renewable energy projects with the overall capacity nearing 520 GW by March 2026.
According to the rating agency ICRA, India's electricity demand is set to be influenced by Electric Vehicles (EVs), Green Hydrogen (GH), and data centers in the coming years from FY2026 to FY2030. The agency forecasts a growth rate of 6-6.5% in electricity demand for the next five years, with FY2026 expected to see a growth rate of 5.0-5.5%, slightly lower than the GDP growth for that fiscal year due to early monsoon conditions. The thermal power segment is predicted to maintain a load factor of 70.0% in FY2026, with renewable energy sources contributing significantly to generation. The adoption of rooftop solar and off-grid projects is also expected to rise, supported by government schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Surya Ghar Yojana. In terms of EV penetration, three-wheelers are projected to lead, followed by two-wheelers, e-buses, and passenger vehicles. While Green Hydrogen's capacity is expected to scale up gradually, the cost factor remains a consideration compared to grey hydrogen. The government is encouraging new thermal power projects alongside renewable energy initiatives to ensure a balance in installed capacity for meeting the growing electricity demand. ICRA anticipates an all-time high of 44 GW in generation capacity addition in FY2026, with the thermal segment contributing 9-10 GW and the rest from renewable energy sources. The total installed power generation capacity is expected to reach close to 520 GW by March 2026, with renewable energy projects being the primary driver of capacity expansion.
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