Assessing Country-Specific Investment Risks in Green Hydrogen Production
Key Ideas
- Green hydrogen, vital for global energy transition, faces cost variations due to country-specific risks in capital investments.
- A novel methodology in the Middle East and North Africa integrates investment risks into cost-potential and energy modelling, revealing significant variations.
- Country-specific risk factors, captured through Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), greatly influence competitiveness and development of green hydrogen sectors.
- High-risk scenarios by 2050 can lead to 180% higher costs, emphasizing the impact of investment risks on the competitiveness of renewable energy and synthetic fuel sectors.
The research article delves into the importance of green hydrogen, derived from renewable sources like wind and solar, in driving the global energy transition and decarbonization efforts in industrial and transport sectors. The study from the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy in Germany and the German Aerospace Center focuses on assessing the impact of country-specific investment risks on green hydrogen production costs. By analyzing the Middle East and North Africa regions, the research introduces a unique approach that incorporates qualitative investment risks into quantitative analyses, offering a more comprehensive understanding of cost potentials and energy modeling. The methodology calculates Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC) for 17 countries in the MENA region under various risk scenarios, showcasing significant differences in cost factors. For instance, the study reveals that the WACC can range from 4.67% in the United Arab Emirates to 24.84% in countries like Yemen or Syria under business-as-usual scenarios. By integrating these country-specific capital cost scenarios into the model, the research also examines the cost-potential of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels, highlighting the substantial impact of investment risks on overall costs. The findings emphasize that while renewable energy potential and costs are essential, country-specific risk factors captured through WACC play a crucial role in determining the competitiveness and development of the green hydrogen and synthetic fuel sectors. The study predicts that in high-risk scenarios by 2050, initial costs can be significantly higher, up to 180% more compared to lower-risk contexts. This underscores the importance of considering investment risks in shaping the future competitiveness and sustainability of renewable energy and synthetic fuel industries.
Topics
Africa
Middle East
Renewable Energy
Energy Transition
Decarbonization
Economic Analysis
North Africa
Capital Costs
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