India's Power Sector Trends: EV Adoption, Green Hydrogen Projects, and Solar Initiatives
Key Ideas
- ICRA projects India's power demand to grow by 6.0–6.5% annually, driven by EV adoption, data centres, and green hydrogen projects.
- The report forecasts a rise in total power generation capacity to 44 GW in FY2026, with significant contributions from renewable sources.
- Thermal projects are expected to add 9–10 GW capacity in FY2026, while renewables continue to dominate capacity growth.
- Despite slight GDP growth forecast gap, initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Surya Ghar Yojana are set to offset rising grid demand with solar solutions.
India's power demand is expected to surge by 6.0–6.5% annually over the next five years due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, rapid expansion of data centers, and the development of green hydrogen projects. The forecast by ICRA suggests that these sectors will contribute significantly to the incremental demand, accounting for 20–25% over the FY2026 to FY2030 period. Additionally, the report anticipates a strong increase in thermal plant load factor to 70% in FY2026, with the total power generation capacity projected to reach 44 GW, up from 34 GW in FY2024, driven by both renewable and thermal sources. While renewable energy will lead in capacity growth, there is a notable rise in thermal projects under construction, exceeding 40 GW. Although the expected power demand growth slightly lags behind the GDP growth forecast for FY2026, initiatives like the Pradhan Mantri Surya Ghar Yojana are poised to mitigate this gap by promoting rooftop solar and off-grid solutions. This strategic focus on diverse energy sources and sustainability initiatives indicates a positive trajectory for India's power sector in the coming years.